Thy Strength Befits Bitcoin -- Bob Loukas

Left translated??

Some notes from the latest Bob Loukas 4 year journey video:

• From a year back (bear market lows), we’ve had very sustainable move in each of the rallies up

• There’s been 3 corrections - retracing 16.86%, 21.84%, and 22.18%

• These corrections are much shallower than what we got in prior cycles

• In the ‘17 cycle, at the equivalent of where we are currently, we had 4 major corrections, all of which were > 30% and 2 of which were > 40%

  

• In prior cycles, we’ve seen a pretty strong decline and consolidation going forward from where we currently are

  • In the equivalent of the ‘21 cycle, we had a 2-3 month consolidation before resuming a stronger move up

• Bob is surprised by the amount of strength that BTC has seen lately - but it fits in line with the inflows into the spot BTC ETF

• Bob contrasts it with last cycle where there was a lot more leverage (and fraud) leading to much larger bouts of volatility

• So Bob thinks there are two realistic possibilities - either 1) a left translated cycle or 2) a super cycle

• In case 1) we should expect the top to occur before the midway point (Dec ‘24) and in case 2) we expect a much shorter, shallower bear market relative to what we’ve seen historically

• We should find out soon enough - in the next 4-6 weeks if BTC continues to show strength and we clear 60k (and potentially ATHs), it is much more likely that we end up with a left translated cycle

• As always, inaction is your friend - the cycle is playing out well (although more quickly than expected) and there should be a much more accelerated move ahead of us

  • If you do have some sidelined cash that you want to add, Bob advises to do so on a 20-30% dip

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