Robinhood thesis
The opportunity that HOOD presents feels similar to COIN in Oct ‘23 and CLSK in Nov ‘23. The combination of good fundamentals and technicals makes me incredibly bullish.
The asymmetric upside in buying HOOD comes from a confluence of:
“Hated coins pump the hardest”
Wall St is oblivious
Charts look great
Hated coins pump the hardest
HOOD is a stock that has been completely beat-up:
From early ‘22 up until recently, this stock has hit rock-bottom from a sentiment PoV — and its pretty clear why.
But you know what they say “hated stocks tend to pump the hardest”. Why? After forced selling and time based capitulation occur, any attention is good attention (some of that attention leads to buying!)
And to add, Robinhood has been hustling - they’ve been busy adding features that differentiate them from other brokerages (but who’s paying attention?):
Wall St is oblivious
Bitcoin just hit ATHs, dogcoins are pumping equally hard. HOOD has been hustling, setting integrations up so that they too can provide shovels during this upcoming gold rush.
But Wall St doesn’t see that at all.
Wall St is accounting for 5% user growth in Q1 of 2024 and a 15% increase in crypto related transaction revenue.
HOOD went from 493 to 43 in the app store from Jan 1 to Mar 5. Look at Coinbase metrics as a comp and account for the explosion in downloads – it is so clear that Wall St’s estimates are way out of touch. HOOD is doing everything they can to absorb the crypto audience:
Charts look great
I’ve wrote a lot of words and painted a narrative around HOOD - but the charts tell the entire story.
Shortly after the initial IPO pop, HOOD has been down only. A few hundred days of down only followed by 700 days ranging in the $8 - $13 range.
Translation: people detested the stock for a few hundred days, and then they didn’t care for the next 2 years.
But now we’ve broken out of the range now.
Combine this with the fact that we are just entering the up only stages of global liquidity (aka the gold rush where risk assets are up only)...
I’m long HOOD (have been adding since $8-9)..
Not financial advice, do your own research