Coinbase Price Targets
not financial advice please
I posted a price model for Solana several weeks back. There was a lot of demand for a similar model for Coinbase. Here it is!
Last year, I had a thesis on Coinbase:
We are seeing 1 play out in real time (most recently, BTC spot ETF approval) and 2/ is slowly grinding up.
I also called Coinbase an index on all things crypto.
If you agree with my framing (Coinbase as an index + a bet on favorable regulation and total crypto marketcap) looking at the relative marketcap of Coinbase vs. the total crypto marketcap (aka COIN.D) is a good proxy on valuing Coinbase. This is similar to how we look at BTC.D and ETH-BTC ratio.
COIN.D had peaked in July ‘21 at approximately 20E-11. Since then, Coinbase has carved out a larger and larger surface area, they’ve:
Pushing for clarification around crypto regulation within the US
Accrued > 1.5M ETH in their liquid staking token (cbETH)
Shipped Base (ETH L2)
Shipped international derivatives/futures market
The trusted custodian for 9 of the BTC ETF issuers
Taken more ownership in USDC
So here’s my pricing model. If we see a 5-10T total crypto marketcap, $1000 is a very realistic target for $COIN (even factoring in an increase in float).
Note:
20E-11 was the prev ATH for COIN.D (Jul ‘21)
Since then COIN has significantly diversified it’s revenue beyond trading fees
The total crypto marketcap peaked at 3T last cycle in Nov 2021
The final numbers factor project the $COIN share float increase and factor that into the final share price
😱 I pray this into existence