Be Aware -- Bob Loukas

Bob helping us zoom out

Original Video - I would highly recommend watching the whole thing and giving Bob a follow on Twitter if you aren’t already

Some takeaways from the most recent Bob Loukas 4 year cycle video, covering:

• Recap of the past several months

• What happens when we get an ETF approval?

• What happens if we end up with a denial?

• How might this cycle play out (where do we top)?

• When do expect us to make new ATHs?

Recap

• Recent price action through Oct has basically confirmed that we are fully on track for BTC’s 4Y cycle – just as it has played out in prior cycles

• We’ve had a few volatility inducing events from SVB to the SEC lawsuits to the teasing of an ETF approval

• The recent move has made it really hard for latecomers to get in position – this is why we emphasize paying attention and getting in early

• From seeing the day to day price action, it sure feels like the market is pricing in and expecting an ETF approval

• The market is set up in a way where BTC has gained a lot of legitimacy and the incentives are aligned for institutions and funds to allocate heavily

What happens when we get an ETF approval?

• A move to 47-48k wouldn’t surprise him on approval

• Will it be a “sell the news” event? Bob thinks we get a shakeout at some point but not in a way which everyone expects

• A plausible scenario that plays out is that we break into the low 40s on approval, it overextends into high 40s and maybe even 50 range 2-4 weeks after

  • It is at that point where he expects us to retrace 30-40% before continuing up only (does this make it a sell the news event?)

What happens if we end up with a denial?

• A denial would retrace 30-40% as expected – we would probably test the 25K support but Bob doesn’t expect us to go past that level

• And if that occurs, you may get ETF approval again in 1-2Y time, when the 4Y cycle is expected to reach a top

• But again, Bob emphasizes that he does think an approval is the most likely scenario with all things considered

How might this cycle play out (where do we top)?

• If you overlay the ‘17 top and the ‘21 top fractals, this would give us BTC price somewhere between 200-900k

• One can argue that we are seeing diminishing returns per cycle, so 120-130K is a more “realistic” target but you also never know

• Bob warns that we should expect 4-5 declines of up to 30-40% as we’ve seen in prior cycles

When do expect us to make new ATHs?

• It took us 26 months in the ‘17 cycle and 24 months in the ‘21 cycle before we broke ATHs – the equivalent timeline would be around nov 2024 for us

• If we get there before the halvening that would be far too quick and would make this incredibly hard to trade giving us a left translated cycle

• E.g. if it shoots up to 50K this month -> 65K next month -> 100K in Jan/Feb this would make it hard to forecast where the top will be approximately (do we got to 250K or do we top out early and shoot into a 2 year bear market?)

• We’ll have a much better idea of whether we get the left translated cycle in a few months, until then assume this cycle plays out similar to the last few

As always, Bob reminds us:

• Don’t do anything – use separate source of funds if you wanna trade shitcoins, NFTs, etc. Go live life, find a hobby, think about other things

• Resist the urge of FOMO, sit in your hands, and enjoy in the gains in a much more stress free manner